SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:32 P.M. ET: 

SMILE – FROM AXIOS:  Congressional Republicans have seen a bounce in generic polling against Democrats after passing tax cuts last month. A new CNN poll tightened the margin to 5 points — with Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 44%. The same poll showed Democrats leading by 18 points last month.  Why it matters: The GOP is banking its 2018 hopes on the tax law, and while it's far from universally popular it is making a difference. A 5-point deficit is still bad, though at least the sky isn't falling. One thing that should be worrying: that CNN poll has those excited about turning out for the midterms favoring Democrats by 15 points.  This is good news.  I wouldn't worry too much about the "excitement" factor.  Democrats are usually excited, and yet Republicans usually lead in turn-out, no matter what the polls say.  It's much too early to be certain of trends, and Mr. Mueller may have an election-week surprise for the Trump White House, but Democratic optimism is, I believe, premature and misplaced.

BAD POLICY, BUT TRENDY – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  Following a controversial move by the Toronto Public Schools to get rid of police officers in its schools, a new study shows that doing just that is actually be a pretty bad idea.  In August, the district caved to Black Lives Matter and immigration activists who demanded school-based officers be removed from buildings. The activists claimed scrapping the police presence was needed to “combat perceived anti-black racism in education.” (And it’s not just a Canadian thing.)  Toronto’s School Resource Officers program had been in place since 2008.  Research from Carleton University says keeping officers in schools makes students feel safer, less stressed, and helps “build positive relationships with law enforcement,” the Toronto Star reports. Data from the Peel region (west of Toronto) was culled from 1,300 student surveys, and interviews with school administrators and police.  “Every single one of these different groups (said) students feel safer at school,” said Carleton business professor Linda Duxbury, one of the study’s lead researchers. “The goal of the Peel program is to make people feel safer in schools so they can learn more . . . every single source of data said it (met that goal).”  Black Lives Matter criticized the study saying it should have focused on the “well-being of racialized students in particular.”  Of course police make the kids feel safer.  But trendiness comes first in education these days, and Black Lives Matter, which has never saved a black life, is the trendiest of the trendy.

THE SHUTDOWN - LATEST - FROM THE POLITICO:   Party leaders and rank-and-file senators spent all day Sunday haggling over a deal to reopen the government. But Washington's painful shutdown will nonetheless drag into Day Three.  Shortly after 9 p.m. Sunday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that the chamber would vote on a plan at noon Monday to fund the government through Feb. 8. In an attempted concession to Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, McConnell said he would take up legislation to protect some young immigrants from deportation if a deal to address their status is not reached by the time funding expires in early February.  But Democrats were not ready to call it a deal, even as McConnell implored the Senate to vote Sunday night to reopen the government. "The shutdown should stop today," he said.  Schumer said further negotiations were needed and spurned McConnell's request, pushing a vote until Monday, when hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed.  "Talks will continue, but we have yet to reach an agreement on a path forward that would be acceptable for both sides," Schumer said.
Aides expect the Monday vote to fail absent further progress between the two party leaders before then.  The Dems are playing a dangerous game.  They think the public will perpetually blame Trump for the shutdown, but that may not be the case, especially if the shutdown drags on.

January 21, 2018